With the highly-anticipated Wimbledon championships just around the corner, this article demands to be written. Although it looks like the tournament has already been decided when recently historical and current happenings are taken into account into any analytical prediction concerning such, there is one factor which presents a strong probability that this apparently decided scenario will not materialize. What exactly is this factor the article will disclose further down its length.

So who are the 3 potential winners, with the triangular balance of their probabilities of their winning the championship being a function of the 'factor' as mentioned above?

They are:

Roger Federer (obviously)

Marin Cilic (not too surprising)

Nick Kyrgios (somewhat unexpectedly)

So these are the assumptions - although we would argue that they are pretty much 'facts' - which make up the above mentioned triangular balance of their probabilities of winning:

  1. Should they meet, Federer will win Cilic in another clash at Wimbledon hands-down. The five-setter Cilic pushed Federer to at the Australian Open final of this year cannot be deemed an accurate measure of how far Cilic will be able to push Federer on grass, given how Federer is much more comfortable and deadly on his favorite surface.
  2. Should they meet, Nick Kyrgios has a high chance of beating Roger Federer, given how dangerous Kyrgios is on grass - his recent performance against Federer at Stuttgart is testament to this. He is all the more dangerous to Federer because he like Federer, has a game-style which grass is most favorable to, and because Federer himself brings out the best in Kyrgios. Federer himself admitted that he will not want to play Kyrgios in the future given how dangerous he is.
  3. Should Cilic and Kyrgios meet, there is virtually a 50-50 chance for either one of them to win.

So, based on these assumptions, the path to the throne would be virtually guaranteed should Federer not be in the same half of the draw as Kyrgios. It gets uncertain if he and Kyrgios happen to be in the same half. That being said, Federer typically plays his best tennis at Wimbledon in a typical year (2010, 2011 and 2013 were abnormal years for Federer), and if his win at the Australian Open and recent performance at Stuttgart were to be useful indicators of his future performance, a win at Wimbledon is highly probable.

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